Pre-poll surveys proved wrong
Britain’s pollsters offered confident predictions of a hung Parliament throughout the election campaign. Friday’s results proved them consistently wrong.
The surprise victory for Prime Minister David Cameron’s Conservative Party left pollsters scrambling to explain their worst performance in a British election since 1992, when the Conservatives also defied forecasts and won a narrow parliamentary majority.
Pollsters say their month of surveys portraying the Conservatives and opposition Labour Party in a tight race failed, in part, to take proper account of the potential for lower turnout among people identifying themselves as likely Labour Party voters.
Analysis of the campaign’s final polls also may document last-minute switches by wavering voters to Cameron’s party because of its reputation for stronger economic management, a factor in 1992’s polling failures.